WSG Wattens 1-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC BW Linz make the trip to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to face WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
WSG Wattens (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, WSG Wattens have posted 3W 4D 3L at Tivoli Stadion Tirol — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tivoli Stadion Tirol. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.
FC BW Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC BW Linz are 0.50 PPG clear of WSG Wattens in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–3 with FC BW Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 45% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 45% | FC BW Linz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.14 xG and FC BW Linz 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.596 / defence 0.788 | FC BW Linz attack 0.980 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.198. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.596 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 WSG Wattens games / 30 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 40% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 29%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | FC BW Linz 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC BW Linz (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 20% | FC BW Linz 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 40% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG WSG Wattens 1.14 / FC BW Linz 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.596 / def 0.788 | FC BW Linz attack 0.980 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC BW Linz xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz part of?
WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 40% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz?
Record (4 meetings): WSG Wattens 2W | Draws 0 | FC BW Linz 2W.
What form are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.60x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.98x) against WSG Wattens's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.30
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
FC BW Linz xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 0.93 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 9W 7D 24L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC BW Linz's form line: 11W 12D 17L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.12 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
On the road, FC BW Linz have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 9W 7D 24L in their last 40 games (0.85 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or FC BW Linz away?
WSG Wattens's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.89 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.84 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or FC BW Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, FC BW Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
4
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 FC BW Linz.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 42%, FC BW Linz 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (WSG Wattens) and 47% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 47% of games; FC BW Linz in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play FC BW Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 47% of FC BW Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 47% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens and FC BW Linz finished level at 1-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.14 xG and FC BW Linz 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.60 / defence 0.79 against FC BW Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 40% | Draw 30% | FC BW Linz 29%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 45%, FC BW Linz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.85 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.