TSV Hartberg 3-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
WSG Wattens's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in TSV Hartberg's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 3–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus WSG Wattens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 56% | WSG Wattens 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.872 / defence 1.059 | WSG Wattens attack 0.994 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 31%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | WSG Wattens 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.41 / WSG Wattens 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.872 / def 1.059 | WSG Wattens attack 0.994 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 2 WSG Wattens.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens part of?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 37% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
Record (6 meetings): TSV Hartberg 4W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.87) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.99x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
37%
2.68
32%
3.14
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.26 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 18D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 0.89 PPG from 62 outings (14W 13D 35L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 11W 8D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (7W 4D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.98 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 14W 13D 35L in their last 62 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or WSG Wattens away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.32 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, WSG Wattens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (TSV Hartberg) and 61% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 48% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 61% of WSG Wattens's.
Do TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out WSG Wattens 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat WSG Wattens 3-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.41 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 37% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 31%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 56%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.