TSV Hartberg 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.80 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Red Bull Salzburg, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (34 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (34 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Red Bull Salzburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.978 / defence 1.009 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.017 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.264. Data: 24 TSV Hartberg games / 24 Red Bull Salzburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.53 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.978 / def 1.009 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.017 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Red Bull Salzburg xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 43% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (5 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 1 | Red Bull Salzburg 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.98x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.01
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.83
1.30
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.30 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 11D 11L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.79 PPG from 34 outings (17W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Red Bull Salzburg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.76 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 11D 11L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 17W 10D 7L in their last 34 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.53 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 67%, Red Bull Salzburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (TSV Hartberg) and 47% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 33%; Red Bull Salzburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of TSV Hartberg's games and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 47% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Red Bull Salzburg defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (34 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (34 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.