TSV Hartberg 3-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours Austria Klagenfurt — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Austria Klagenfurt — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 0.90 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Austria Klagenfurt have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for TSV Hartberg.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria Klagenfurt — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Austria Klagenfurt have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 55% versus Austria Klagenfurt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 63% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Austria Klagenfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.20 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.967 / defence 0.940 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.026 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 40% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.53 | Draw 3.13 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 40% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.20 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.967 / def 0.940 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.026 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Austria Klagenfurt xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 7) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 40% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
40%
2.53
32%
3.13
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.17
0.98
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.98 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 14D 27L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 20W 17D 23L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.18 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 11W 7D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 20W 17D 23L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.23 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 53%, Austria Klagenfurt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for TSV Hartberg and 70% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of TSV Hartberg's games and 63% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 70% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 77% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out Austria Klagenfurt 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Klagenfurt 3-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.20 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 40% | Draw 32% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 63%, Austria Klagenfurt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.18 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.