Sturm Graz 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Championship Round - 8 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 1D 2L at Merkur Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sturm Graz, 0 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 54% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 49% | TSV Hartberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.64 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.172 / defence 0.842 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 5.00. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 20% | TSV Hartberg 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Sturm Graz 1.64 / TSV Hartberg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.172 / def 0.842 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.097 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 53% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (3 meetings): Sturm Graz 2W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.17x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.69
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.57
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
4%
25.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.94 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 38W 14D 9L from 61 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 27L across 61 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 21W 4D 5L from 30 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.36 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 38W 14D 9L in their last 61 games (2.10 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.23 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 43%, TSV Hartberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sturm Graz) and 63% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 57% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sturm Graz's matches and 63% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 8, as Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.64 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 53% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 20%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 49%, TSV Hartberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.