Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sturm Graz face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sturm Graz at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Wolfsberger AC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Sturm Graz edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Sturm Graz 2–1 Wolfsberger AC — a Sturm Graz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 48% | Wolfsberger AC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.24 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.984 / defence 0.820 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.955 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.138. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 42 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 42.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 44% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 26%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.30 | Draw 3.26 | Wolfsberger AC 3.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 44% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.24 / Wolfsberger AC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.984 / def 0.820 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.955 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Wolfsberger AC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Sturm Graz 4 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 44% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.95x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 42 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
44%
2.30
31%
3.26
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.13
0.89
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.89 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 52 games, going 32W 12D 8L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.35 PPG from 52 outings (20W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 18W 4D 4L across their last 26 home games, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 26 away games (12W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 62%.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 32W 12D 8L in their last 52 games (2.08 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 10D 22L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.23 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger AC on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 50%, Wolfsberger AC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sturm Graz) and 62% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 31%; Wolfsberger AC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 54% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sturm Graz's matches and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 85% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Wolfsberger AC 4-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.24 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 44% | Draw 31% | Wolfsberger AC 26%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 48%, Wolfsberger AC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.