Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (65%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sturm Graz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SCR Altach travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SCR Altach away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sturm Graz: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for SCR Altach, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Sturm Graz 2–1 SCR Altach — a Sturm Graz win.
The head-to-head data gives Sturm Graz an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SCR Altach trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 52% | SCR Altach 48%). Note also that SCR Altach surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Sturm Graz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and SCR Altach 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.101 / defence 0.787 | SCR Altach attack 0.754 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.198. SCR Altach's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sturm Graz's projected output up. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Sturm Graz have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling SCR Altach's projected output down. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 38 games and SCR Altach's last 38.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 65% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 14%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.54 | Draw 4.64 | SCR Altach 7.38. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (65%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 40% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 65% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.87 / SCR Altach 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.101 / def 0.787 | SCR Altach attack 0.754 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.71
SCR Altach xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach part of?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 65% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and SCR Altach will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (1.10) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 38 games and SCR Altach's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
65%
1.54
22%
4.64
14%
7.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.58
0.71
SCR Altach xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
7.38
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
2%
47.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.71 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 30W 10D 8L from 48 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 24L across 48 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 17W 3D 4L from their last 24 home games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 4W 8D 12L across their last 24 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.88 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs SCR Altach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 30W 10D 8L in their last 48 games (2.08 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 10W 14D 24L in their last 48 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or SCR Altach away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.25 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 4-0 SCR Altach.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and SCR Altach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 50%, SCR Altach 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sturm Graz) and 58% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and SCR Altach matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 46% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sturm Graz's matches and 58% of SCR Altach's.
Do Sturm Graz and SCR Altach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 62% of SCR Altach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out SCR Altach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and SCR Altach 0.71 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against SCR Altach attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 65% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 14%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 52%, SCR Altach 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.