Austria Lustenau 1-3 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Lustenau face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host Lask Linz at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 1D 8L at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Lask Linz — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lask Linz's 1.80 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Austria Lustenau's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Austria Lustenau, 2 for Lask Linz and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Lask Linz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Austria Lustenau in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 48% versus Lask Linz 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 56% | Lask Linz 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.00 xG and Lask Linz 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.774 / defence 1.815 | Lask Linz attack 0.996 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.172. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Austria Lustenau games / 38 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 17% | Draw 20% | Lask Linz 63%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Lask Linz 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 40% | Lask Linz 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 17% | Draw 20% | Lask Linz 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.00 / Lask Linz 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.774 / def 1.815 | Lask Linz attack 0.996 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Lask Linz xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 3 Lask Linz.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 17% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 1 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
17%
5.93
20%
4.98
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.12
2.12
Lask Linz xG
5.93
17%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
12%
8.31
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
2%
49.29
23%
4.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.12 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 13D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.73 PPG from 48 outings (22W 17D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 6W 5D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (7W 12D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.56 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 22W 17D 9L in their last 48 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.96 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Lask Linz have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2023, when Austria Lustenau 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 50%, Lask Linz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Austria Lustenau) and 33% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Austria Lustenau's games and 62% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 33% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Austria Lustenau 1-3 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.00 xG and Lask Linz 2.12 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 2.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.77 / defence 1.81 against Lask Linz attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 17% | Draw 20% | Lask Linz 63%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 56%, Lask Linz 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.