Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 1.00 PPG lead over Rapid Vienna (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rapid Vienna in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sturm Graz lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Rapid Vienna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 56% | Rapid Vienna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.49 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.532 / defence 1.082 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.919 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.532 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 64% | Draw 21% | Rapid Vienna 15%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Rapid Vienna 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 70% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 64% | Draw 21% | Rapid Vienna 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Sturm Graz 2.49 / Rapid Vienna 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.532 / def 1.082 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.919 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rapid Vienna xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 64% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Record (3 meetings): Sturm Graz 1W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 1W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.53x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.92x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.69
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.68
1.19
Rapid Vienna xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
8%
12.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
1%
81.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.19 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 33W 15D 7L from 55 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 16L across 55 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 18W 6D 3L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 8W 11D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 33W 15D 7L in their last 55 games (2.07 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 20W 19D 16L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.22 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 44%, Rapid Vienna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sturm Graz) and 37% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 33%; Rapid Vienna in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 37% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 2-0 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.49 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.19 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.53 / defence 1.08 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 64% | Draw 21% | Rapid Vienna 15%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 56%, Rapid Vienna 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.