Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur-Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Vienna's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 0.50 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sturm Graz, 3 for Austria Vienna and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 61% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 67% | Austria Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.72 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.082 / defence 1.084 | Austria Vienna attack 1.011 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.287. Data: 26 Sturm Graz games / 27 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 32%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Vienna 3.12. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Austria Vienna lead the H2H ledger, but Sturm Graz carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Sturm Graz 1.72 / Austria Vienna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.082 / def 1.084 | Austria Vienna attack 1.011 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 0 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 45% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): Sturm Graz 1W | Draws 2 | Austria Vienna 3W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.08x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.01x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
45%
2.22
23%
4.27
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.13
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.41 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 22W 6D 8L from 36 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 10L across 36 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.78 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 11W 3D 3L from 17 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 8W 4D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 22W 6D 8L in their last 36 games (2.00 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 19W 7D 10L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.12 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 59%, Austria Vienna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Sturm Graz) and 41% (Austria Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sturm Graz's games and 53% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 41% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Sturm Graz 0-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.72 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Austria Vienna attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 45% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 32%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 67%, Austria Vienna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.00 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.