SCR Altach 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 37%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Vienna travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SCR Altach stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
SCR Altach at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — SCR Altach are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Vienna 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended SCR Altach 1–2 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 46% | Austria Vienna 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SCR Altach surrender their half-time lead 62% of the time, while Austria Vienna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.12 xG and Austria Vienna 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.769 / defence 0.986 | Austria Vienna attack 0.995 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 30%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.70 | Draw 3.07 | Austria Vienna 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 40% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG SCR Altach 1.12 / Austria Vienna 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.769 / def 0.986 | Austria Vienna attack 0.995 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Austria Vienna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 37% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.77) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
37%
2.70
33%
3.07
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.12
0.99
Austria Vienna xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.99 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 54 games, going 10W 17D 27L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.46 PPG from 54 outings (21W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 6W 8D 13L across their last 27 home games, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.57 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 10W 17D 27L in their last 54 games (0.87 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.96 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
SCR Altach have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 3-0 SCR Altach.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 48%, Austria Vienna 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (SCR Altach) and 63% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of SCR Altach's games and 63% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of SCR Altach's recent games and 63% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 82% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 1, as SCR Altach and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.12 xG and Austria Vienna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Austria Vienna attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 37% | Draw 33% | Austria Vienna 30%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 46%, Austria Vienna 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.