Austria Vienna 2-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
WSG Wattens travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Austria Vienna, 0 for WSG Wattens and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Austria Vienna 2–0 WSG Wattens — a Austria Vienna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 57% versus WSG Wattens 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 66% | WSG Wattens 53%). Note also that WSG Wattens surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.81 xG and WSG Wattens 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / defence 0.844 | WSG Wattens attack 0.903 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.067. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 43 games and WSG Wattens's last 43.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 16%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.64 | Draw 4.43 | WSG Wattens 6.11. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 30% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.81 / WSG Wattens 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / def 0.844 | WSG Wattens attack 0.903 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.81
WSG Wattens xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna 2 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 61% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 43 games and WSG Wattens's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.43
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.62
0.81
WSG Wattens xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
37.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.81 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Vienna come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 16D 17L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 0.98 PPG from 53 outings (14W 10D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Vienna's home form reads 12W 8D 6L across their last 26 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.21 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 14W 10D 29L in their last 53 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or WSG Wattens away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.69 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: WSG Wattens 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 50%, WSG Wattens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Austria Vienna and 58% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 27% of games; WSG Wattens in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 54% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Austria Vienna's matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 73% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 2-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.81 xG and WSG Wattens 0.81 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against WSG Wattens attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 16%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 66%, WSG Wattens 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.