Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Red Bull Salzburg welcome WSG Wattens to Red Bull Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 9W 1D 0L at Red Bull Arena — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Red Bull Salzburg have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Red Bull Salzburg, 0 for WSG Wattens and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 5–0 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 47% versus WSG Wattens 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Red Bull Salzburg 60% | WSG Wattens 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 xG and WSG Wattens 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.170 / defence 0.660 | WSG Wattens attack 0.966 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.404. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Red Bull Salzburg games / 28 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 62% | Draw 21% | WSG Wattens 17%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | WSG Wattens 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | WSG Wattens 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 62% | Draw 21% | WSG Wattens 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 / WSG Wattens 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.170 / def 0.660 | WSG Wattens attack 0.966 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
WSG Wattens xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Red Bull Salzburg 2 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 62% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
Record (2 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 2W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.17) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.69
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.85
0.90
WSG Wattens xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
42.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.90 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 30W 5D 3L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens's form line: 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.79 PPG from 19 outings (17W 2D 0L).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 6W 2D 11L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.45 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 30W 5D 3L in their last 38 games (2.50 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or WSG Wattens away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.79 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg 2-3 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 42%, WSG Wattens 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Red Bull Salzburg and 74% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 53% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 74% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat WSG Wattens 2-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 xG and WSG Wattens 0.90 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.17 / defence 0.66 against WSG Wattens attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 62% | Draw 21% | WSG Wattens 17%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 60%, WSG Wattens 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.