Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Red Bull Salzburg face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Vienna (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Red Bull Salzburg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (2.10 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 80% of Austria Vienna's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Austria Vienna managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 Austria Vienna — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
The head-to-head data gives Red Bull Salzburg an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 61% versus Austria Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 61% | Austria Vienna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.98 xG and Austria Vienna 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.280 / defence 1.054 | Austria Vienna attack 1.156 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.344. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.280 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 39 games and Austria Vienna's last 39.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 32%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.17 | Draw 4.62 | Austria Vienna 3.10. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 70% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.98 / Austria Vienna 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.280 / def 1.054 | Austria Vienna attack 1.156 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Austria Vienna xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 46% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.16x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 39 games and Austria Vienna's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
46%
2.17
22%
4.62
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
3.62
1.64
Austria Vienna xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
4%
22.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.64 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 25W 14D 10L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 26W 8D 15L from 49 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 1.76 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 24 home games (14W 6D 4L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 12W 4D 8L from their last 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.47 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 14D 10L in their last 49 games (1.82 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 26W 8D 15L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.00 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Red Bull Salzburg have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won Austria Vienna 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Red Bull Salzburg
1
Draws
1
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, Austria Vienna have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 62%, Austria Vienna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Red Bull Salzburg and 50% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 58% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 50% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 67% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Red Bull Salzburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.98 xG and Austria Vienna 1.64 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Austria Vienna attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 32%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 61%, Austria Vienna 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 1.82 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.