Grazer AK 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grazer AK host Red Bull Salzburg at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Grazer AK — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Grazer AK at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Red Bull Salzburg away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Red Bull Salzburg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Grazer AK's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Grazer AK have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Grazer AK 0–5 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 64% and Red Bull Salzburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 58% | Red Bull Salzburg 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Grazer AK surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Red Bull Salzburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.22 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.058 / defence 1.106 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.139 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.208. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 40 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 40.
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 31% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 44%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.28 | Draw 3.96 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Grazer AK's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 70% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 31% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Grazer AK 1.22 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.058 / def 1.106 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.139 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Red Bull Salzburg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Grazer AK 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 31% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 1.06x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grazer AK's last 40 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
31%
3.28
25%
3.96
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.52
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.52 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grazer AK come into this having played 50 games, going 8W 20D 22L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.78 PPG from 50 outings (25W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Grazer AK's home form reads 5W 10D 9L across their last 24 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 24 away games (10W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grazer AK are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.78 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Red Bull Salzburg in 60%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Grazer AK (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grazer AK
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 8W 20D 22L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 14D 11L in their last 50 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.04 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Grazer AK or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grazer AK have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Aug 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-0 Grazer AK.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
3
Draws
2
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Grazer AK have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Grazer AK 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 62%, Red Bull Salzburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grazer AK) and 50% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 33%; Grazer AK have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Grazer AK's games and 58% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Grazer AK's recent games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Grazer AK's recent matches and 75% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.22 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 31% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 44%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 58%, Red Bull Salzburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.