Lask Linz 2-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Lask Linz, 1.80 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 50% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 48% | TSV Hartberg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.61 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.981 / defence 1.012 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.874 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 47% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 22%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 4.55. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lask Linz 40% | TSV Hartberg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 47% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Lask Linz 1.61 / TSV Hartberg 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.981 / def 1.012 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.874 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 2 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 47% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): Lask Linz 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.98x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.87x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.28
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.67
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
4%
22.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.06 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 64 games, going 30W 16D 18L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.36 PPG from 64 outings (23W 18D 23L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.36 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 16W 8D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.34 points per game from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.33 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 30W 16D 18L in their last 64 games (1.66 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 23W 18D 23L in their last 64 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.75 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 44%, TSV Hartberg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lask Linz) and 59% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 53% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lask Linz's recent games and 59% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 2-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Conference League Play-offs - 1st Round, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.61 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 47% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 22%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 48%, TSV Hartberg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.66 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.