FC BW Linz 0-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 53%, yet in-form TSV Hartberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
TSV Hartberg make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC BW Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at Hofmann Personal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. TSV Hartberg are 1.00 PPG clear of FC BW Linz in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC BW Linz, 2 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 4–1 with FC BW Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 58% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 58% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 2.07 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.045 / defence 0.991 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.017 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.378. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing FC BW Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC BW Linz games / 23 TSV Hartberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 53% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 25%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | TSV Hartberg 4.00. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 80% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 53% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG FC BW Linz 2.07 / TSV Hartberg 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.045 / def 0.991 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.017 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.39
TSV Hartberg xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
FC BW Linz 0 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 53% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): FC BW Linz 1W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 2W.
What form are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 1.04x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.02x) against FC BW Linz's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.48
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
3.46
1.39
TSV Hartberg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
3%
31.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.39 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC BW Linz come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 5D 17L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC BW Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (11W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for FC BW Linz against 1.33 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC BW Linz's home form reads 8W 0D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.24 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 11W 5D 17L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 11W 11D 11L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.50 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 4-1 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 56%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC BW Linz) and 50% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 38%; TSV Hartberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC BW Linz's matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat FC BW Linz 0-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 2.07 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.39 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.02 / defence 1.26, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 53% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 25%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 58%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.15 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.