FC BW Linz 3-4 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC BW Linz face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Sturm Graz at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz at Hofmann Personal Stadion this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against FC BW Linz's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sturm Graz trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Sturm Graz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 55% | Sturm Graz 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 0.80 xG and Sturm Graz 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.960 / defence 0.851 | Sturm Graz attack 1.372 / defence 0.634. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.278. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.634 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 FC BW Linz games / 30 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 54%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 1.85. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 40% | Sturm Graz 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG FC BW Linz 0.80 / Sturm Graz 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.960 / def 0.851 | Sturm Graz attack 1.372 / def 0.634 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Sturm Graz xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
FC BW Linz 3 - 4 Sturm Graz.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 20% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (6 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 5W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
20%
4.98
26%
3.81
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.29
1.49
Sturm Graz xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
5%
22.16
24%
4.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.1 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.49 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 6D 21L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 25W 6D 9L from 40 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (9W 0D 10L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 12W 3D 4L from 19 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 13W 6D 21L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 25W 6D 9L in their last 40 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.42 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.05 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Sturm Graz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 8 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 47%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for FC BW Linz and 68% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 32%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC BW Linz's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FC BW Linz's matches and 68% of Sturm Graz's.
Do FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out FC BW Linz 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 3-4 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 0.80 xG and Sturm Graz 1.49 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Sturm Graz attack 1.37 / defence 0.63, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 54%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 55%, Sturm Graz 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.