FC BW Linz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Red Bull Salzburg at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC BW Linz stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
FC BW Linz's home record over their last 9 home games: 2W 5D 2L (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 9 home games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Red Bull Salzburg — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for FC BW Linz, 0 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended FC BW Linz 1–0 Red Bull Salzburg — a FC BW Linz win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC BW Linz in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Red Bull Salzburg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.857 / defence 1.040 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.178 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.257. Red Bull Salzburg bring a tight defence (rating 0.779, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC BW Linz's projected output down. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 18 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 40.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 53%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 5.01 | Draw 3.74 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.88. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 44% (last 9 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG FC BW Linz 0.84 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.857 / def 1.040 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.178 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Red Bull Salzburg xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
FC BW Linz 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 20% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.86x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 18 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
20%
5.01
27%
3.74
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.38
1.54
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.01
20%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
4%
23.38
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.54 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 4W 6D 8L from 18 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 2L across 18 games — 2.22 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC BW Linz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 2W 5D 2L from their last 9 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 6W 3D 0L across their last 9 away games, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.94 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 12W 4D 2L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.22 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.33 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 6 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Aug 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 FC BW Linz.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 2, Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 December 2025: FC BW Linz 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC BW Linz) and 56% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 56%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 89% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.54 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.18 / defence 0.78, drawn from 18/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 53%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.