Austria Lustenau 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt make the trip to ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz to face Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Austria Lustenau have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 home games (0.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Austria Klagenfurt are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Austria Lustenau, 2 for Austria Klagenfurt and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Austria Lustenau 0–1 Austria Klagenfurt — a Austria Klagenfurt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Austria Lustenau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Austria Klagenfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 48% versus Austria Klagenfurt 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 56% | Austria Klagenfurt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.15 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.824 / defence 1.591 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.138 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.250. Austria Lustenau's defence rating of 1.591 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output up. Data: built from Austria Lustenau's last 40 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 40.
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 17% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 5.74 | Draw 4.75 | Austria Klagenfurt 1.63. The model has a clear lean to Austria Klagenfurt (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.15 / 2.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Lustenau's last 10 home games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Lustenau 40% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 17% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Austria Lustenau 1.15 / Austria Klagenfurt 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.824 / def 1.591 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.138 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Austria Klagenfurt xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 17% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.82x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (1.14x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 2.26.
These ratings are built from Austria Lustenau's last 40 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
17%
5.74
21%
4.75
62%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.42
2.26
Austria Klagenfurt xG
5.74
17%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.63
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
10%
9.62
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
2%
55.23
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.26 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 50 games, going 12W 13D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.30 PPG from 50 outings (17W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.30 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 6W 5D 14L across their last 25 home games, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Klagenfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.40 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt in 60%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Austria Lustenau (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 12W 13D 25L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 17W 14D 19L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.92 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Austria Klagenfurt have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Austria Lustenau
0
Draws
3
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Lustenau have won 1, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Austria Lustenau 0-1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 52%, Austria Klagenfurt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Austria Lustenau and 80% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Austria Lustenau's games and 68% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 80% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 80% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out Austria Lustenau 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Austria Lustenau 0-1 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.15 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.26 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Lustenau fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Austria Klagenfurt landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.82 / defence 1.59 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 17% | Draw 21% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 56%, Austria Klagenfurt 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 0.98 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.