Austria Vienna 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Vienna host SCR Altach at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Vienna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.40 (SCR Altach). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Austria Vienna have won 3, SCR Altach 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 3–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 56% | SCR Altach 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 0.91 xG and SCR Altach 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.849 / defence 1.152 | SCR Altach attack 0.929 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.442. SCR Altach's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 26 Austria Vienna games / 26 SCR Altach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 21% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 51%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | SCR Altach 1.96. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 60% | SCR Altach 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 21% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Austria Vienna 0.91 / SCR Altach 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.849 / def 1.152 | SCR Altach attack 0.929 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.54
SCR Altach xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Austria Vienna 1 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 21% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Austria Vienna and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
Record (8 meetings): Austria Vienna 3W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 2W.
What form are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Vienna's attack at 0.85x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
21%
4.80
29%
3.50
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.45
1.54
SCR Altach xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
4%
22.44
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.54 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 18W 7D 11L from 36 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 16L across 36 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 10W 3D 5L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.92 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 games (1.69 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.83 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 61%, SCR Altach 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Austria Vienna) and 44% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 39% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Austria Vienna's matches and 44% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Vienna and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 0.91 xG and SCR Altach 1.54 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SCR Altach attack 0.93 / defence 0.79, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 21% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 51%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 56%, SCR Altach 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.