Sukhothai FC 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 41%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 1 for Ratchaburi and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 55% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 53% | Ratchaburi 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.30 xG and Ratchaburi 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.922 / defence 0.983 | Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.195. Data: 51 Sukhothai FC games / 51 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Ratchaburi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 60% | Ratchaburi 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.30 / Ratchaburi 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.922 / def 0.983 | Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ratchaburi xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 41% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (3 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
41%
2.44
33%
3.01
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.99
Ratchaburi xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.99 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 15D 22L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 19W 16D 16L from 51 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.12 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 8D 12L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 15D 22L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 16D 16L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 44%, Ratchaburi 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sukhothai FC) and 36% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 44% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 36% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.30 xG and Ratchaburi 0.99 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 26%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 53%, Ratchaburi 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.