Uthai Thani 2-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Prachuap travel to Uthai Thani Province Stadium to take on Uthai Thani. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Prachuap — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 0.90 PPG, Prachuap 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Prachuap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Uthai Thani have won 1, Prachuap 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Uthai Thani trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Prachuap trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 57% and Prachuap 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Prachuap 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.20 xG and Prachuap 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.712 / defence 1.162 | Prachuap attack 0.886 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.176. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Uthai Thani games / 51 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 33% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 34%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Prachuap 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Prachuap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 33% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Uthai Thani 1.20 / Prachuap 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.712 / def 1.162 | Prachuap attack 0.886 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Prachuap xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Prachuap kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Uthai Thani 2 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap part of?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 33% chance of winning, Prachuap a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Uthai Thani and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.71x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.05
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.41
1.21
Prachuap xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.21 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 7D 9L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 4W 7D 10L from 21 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.05 PPG, Prachuap on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (2W 5D 3L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Prachuap away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.10 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Prachuap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 60%, Prachuap at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Uthai Thani and 40% for Prachuap.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 30% of games; Prachuap in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Uthai Thani's games and 70% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 40% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Prachuap tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Prachuap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Uthai Thani and Prachuap drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.20 xG and Prachuap 1.21 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.71 / defence 1.16 against Prachuap attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 33% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 34%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 52%, Prachuap 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.05 PPG, Prachuap 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.