Port FC 1-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Port FC at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Sukhothai FC encounter.

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Analysis

Sukhothai FC make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Port FC (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Port FC have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sukhothai FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Sukhothai FC (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Port FC's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Port FC's games and 70% of Sukhothai FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Port FC, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Port FC 1–2 Sukhothai FC — a Sukhothai FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 73% and Sukhothai FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 64% | Sukhothai FC 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port FC surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Sukhothai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sukhothai FC surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Port FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 3.21 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.284 / defence 1.235 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.883 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.165. Port FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 3.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sukhothai FC's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port FC's projected output up. Port FC's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sukhothai FC's projected output up. Data: built from Port FC's last 52 games and Sukhothai FC's last 52.

Result probabilities: Port FC 75% | Draw 15% | Sukhothai FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.34 | Draw 6.80 | Sukhothai FC 9.29. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (75%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 4.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (3.21 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 4.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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