Sukhothai FC 3-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sukhothai FC welcome Nakhon Pathom to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Thung Talay Luang Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 1.10 PPG versus Nakhon Pathom's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nakhon Pathom in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Nakhon Pathom and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 61% and Nakhon Pathom 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 65% | Nakhon Pathom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.68 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.897 / defence 0.914 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.920 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.124. Data: 53 Sukhothai FC games / 23 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 54% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 20%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Nakhon Pathom 5.00. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Nakhon Pathom 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 54% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.68 / Nakhon Pathom 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.897 / def 0.914 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.920 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.762 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Nakhon Pathom xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 54% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.83
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.63
0.94
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
4%
26.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.94 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 7W 5D 11L from 23 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 8L across 23 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.13 PPG, Nakhon Pathom on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 5W 2D 4L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Pathom's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.43 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 78%.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 54%, Nakhon Pathom at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sukhothai FC) and 54% (Nakhon Pathom).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sukhothai FC's games and 82% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 54% of Nakhon Pathom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Nakhon Pathom 3-1 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.68 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.94 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 54% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 20%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 65%, Nakhon Pathom 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.13 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.