Buriram United 4-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Chang Arena to face Buriram United in Thai League 1 (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Buriram United have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nakhon Pathom's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1W 2D 3L from their last 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Buriram United's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 33% versus Nakhon Pathom 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 50% | Nakhon Pathom 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.82 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 0.970 / defence 0.713 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.937 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.242. Buriram United have a tight defence (rating 0.713), which is pulling Nakhon Pathom's projected output down. Data: built from Buriram United's last 40 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 12.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 60% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 16%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.66 | Draw 4.22 | Nakhon Pathom 6.22. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Buriram United's last 10 home games and Nakhon Pathom's last 6 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Buriram United 30% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Pathom 67% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 60% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Buriram United 1.82 / Nakhon Pathom 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 0.970 / def 0.713 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.937 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Nakhon Pathom xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom FAQs
What time does Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Buriram United 4 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 60% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 0.97x the league average against Nakhon Pathom's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.94x) against Buriram United's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Buriram United's last 40 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.22
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.65
0.83
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
3%
38.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.83 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 7D 0L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Buriram United's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across their last 6 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 6 away games (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Pathom's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.67 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 75%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Buriram United (Home) vs Nakhon Pathom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Buriram United
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom Form FAQs
What form are Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 5W 7D 0L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Buriram United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.00 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Nakhon Pathom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Nakhon Pathom in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Buriram United have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won Buriram United 4-1 Nakhon Pathom on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Buriram United have won 4, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2025: Nakhon Pathom 1-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 17%, Nakhon Pathom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Buriram United) and 50% (Nakhon Pathom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Buriram United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Buriram United vs Nakhon Pathom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Buriram United's recent matches and 67% of Nakhon Pathom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Buriram United's matches and 50% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Buriram United and Nakhon Pathom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Buriram United's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Pathom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Pathom 4-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.82 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.83 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 0.97 / defence 0.71 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 60% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 16%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 50%, Nakhon Pathom 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.