Trat FC 2-3 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Uthai Thani make the trip to Trat Provincial Central Stadium to face Trat FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trat FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trat FC have posted 3W 3D 1L at Trat Provincial Central Stadium — 1.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Trat FC against 1.40 for Uthai Thani. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Trat FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trat FC 50% versus Uthai Thani 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trat FC 67% | Uthai Thani 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.50 xG and Uthai Thani 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.824 / defence 1.118 | Uthai Thani attack 0.978 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.248. Data: 12 Trat FC games / 12 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trat FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trat FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 57% | Uthai Thani 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Trat FC 1.50 / Uthai Thani 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.824 / def 1.118 | Uthai Thani attack 0.978 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Uthai Thani xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Trat FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Trat FC 2 - 3 Uthai Thani.
Where is Trat FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Trat FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 40% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Trat FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Uthai Thani in?
Trat FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trat FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.98x) against Trat FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.80
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.36
Uthai Thani xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.36 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trat FC come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Trat FC against 1.17 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trat FC's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trat FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trat FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Trat FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
0
Draws
2
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Uthai Thani?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Uthai Thani 3-1 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trat FC 60%, Uthai Thani 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Trat FC and 80% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trat FC's games and 60% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Trat FC's matches and 80% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Trat FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Trat FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Trat FC 2-3 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.50 xG and Uthai Thani 1.36 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Uthai Thani attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 67%, Uthai Thani 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.33 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Trat FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.