Nakhon Pathom 1-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium plays host to Nakhon Pathom versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Nakhon Pathom, 1.00 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Chonburi FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 82% and Chonburi FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 73% | Chonburi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.86 xG and Chonburi FC 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 1.061 / defence 1.280 | Chonburi FC attack 1.237 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.272. Chonburi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Nakhon Pathom games / 40 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 35% | Draw 23% | Chonburi FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Chonburi FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 100% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 35% | Draw 23% | Chonburi FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.86 / Chonburi FC 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 1.061 / def 1.280 | Chonburi FC attack 1.237 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Chonburi FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 35% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (1.06) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (1.24x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 11/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
35%
2.82
23%
4.36
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.87
2.02
Chonburi FC xG
2.82
35%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.87
Clean Sheet
13%
7.50
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
5%
21.15
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 2.02 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nakhon Pathom's recent record stands at 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 5L across 11 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 0.91 for Chonburi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nakhon Pathom have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Nakhon Pathom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Chonburi FC away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.60 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
0
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Chonburi FC 0-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC?
Nakhon Pathom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Nakhon Pathom, 100% for Chonburi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Nakhon Pathom and 80% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 100% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 80% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.86 xG and Chonburi FC 2.02 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Pathom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Chonburi FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 1.06 / defence 1.28 against Chonburi FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.08, drawn from 11/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 35% | Draw 23% | Chonburi FC 42%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Nakhon Pathom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 73%, Chonburi FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 1.18 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.