Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 07:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Suwon City FC away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Suwon City FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 3–2 Suwon City FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (last 76 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 76 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% and Suwon City FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Suwon City FC 63%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 61% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon City FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.157 / defence 1.062 | Suwon City FC attack 1.008 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.124. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 38 games and Suwon City FC's last 38.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.40 | Draw 3.39 | Suwon City FC 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 / Suwon City FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.157 / def 1.062 | Suwon City FC attack 1.008 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Suwon City FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 38 games and Suwon City FC's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.39
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.20
Suwon City FC xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.20 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 45W 17D 14L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 22W 18D 36L from 76 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 36 home games (24W 7D 5L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 8W 9D 19L from their last 36 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 games (2.00 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 9 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 Suwon City FC.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2025: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 78% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 64%, Suwon City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 56% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 78% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ulsan Hyundai FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 3-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon City FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Suwon City FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 29%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.