Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 54%, yet in-form Daegu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Daegu FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1 (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 June 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Daegu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daegu FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 60% of Daegu FC's (from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1, Daegu FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–0 Daegu FC — a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Daegu FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Daegu FC 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gimcheon Sangmu FC surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.41 xG and Daegu FC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.981 / defence 0.826 | Daegu FC attack 0.785 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.100. Daegu FC's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 19 games and Daegu FC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.86 | Draw 3.65 | Daegu FC 5.27. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daegu FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 June 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.41 / Daegu FC 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.981 / def 0.826 | Daegu FC attack 0.785 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Daegu FC xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 29 June 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 54% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 19 games and Daegu FC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.65
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.71
Daegu FC xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.71 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 8W 14D 18L from 40 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 11L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daegu FC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 5W 5D 10L from their last 20 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 6W 6D 8L across their last 20 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 13W 16D 11L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Daegu FC's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from March 2022. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won Daegu FC 3-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2025: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 40% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 40% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 55% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.41 xG and Daegu FC 0.71 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Daegu FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 19/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 19%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Daegu FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Daegu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.