Al-Fayha 2-4 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Al-Fayha take on Damac.

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Full Analysis

Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Damac in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fayha have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Damac (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Damac's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.50 for Damac. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al-Fayha, 2 for Damac and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended Al-Fayha 1–1 Damac — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Damac half-time and goal-timing data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Damac 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Damac 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Damac have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Damac surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Al-Fayha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.97 xG and Damac 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.662 / defence 0.791 | Damac attack 0.827 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.475. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.662 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Al-Fayha have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling Damac's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 44 games and Damac's last 44.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 34% | Damac 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.03 | Draw 2.92 | Damac 3.05. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Damac 50% (last 10 away games).

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