Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al Fateh Club Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Fateh have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al-Fayha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Al-Fayha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Al-Fayha 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.284 / defence 1.031 | Al-Fayha attack 1.089 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.444. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fayha 3.23. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Al-Fayha lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Fateh carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Al-Fateh 1.98 / Al-Fayha 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.284 / def 1.031 | Al-Fayha attack 1.089 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Al-Fayha xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 46% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.31
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.60
1.62
Al-Fayha xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
4%
23.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.62 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 20W 7D 16L from 43 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 16L across 43 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fateh by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 6W 7D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.07 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 20W 7D 16L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 16D 16L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
5
Draws
5
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 52%, Al-Fayha 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fateh) and 52% (Al-Fayha).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Fateh's games and 67% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 52% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Al-Fayha 1.62 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.28 / defence 1.03 against Al-Fayha attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 31%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Al-Fayha 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Al-Fayha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.