Al-Raed 2-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 45%, yet in-form Al Wehda Club provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sport City Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Al Wehda Club in Pro League (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Raed have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Raed have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Raed are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al Wehda Club (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Al Wehda Club have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al Wehda Club arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Raed, 0 for Al Wehda Club and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended Al-Raed 2–2 Al Wehda Club — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al Wehda Club 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 70% | Al Wehda Club 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.83 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.934 / defence 1.154 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.882 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.482. Al Wehda Club's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 44 games and Al Wehda Club's last 44.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 45% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.22 | Draw 4.25 | Al Wehda Club 3.18. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Wehda Club (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al Wehda Club's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Wehda Club 70% (last 10 away games).

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