Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to King Fahd International Stadium in Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Nassr — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended Al-Fayha 0–0 Al-Nassr — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Al-Nassr 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 45% | Al-Nassr 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.79 xG and Al-Nassr 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.675 / defence 0.710 | Al-Nassr attack 1.422 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.400. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Al-Nassr bring a tight defence (rating 0.761, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Fayha's projected output down. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.422, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Al-Fayha have a tight defence (rating 0.710), which is pulling Al-Nassr's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 40 games and Al-Nassr's last 40.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 21% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.78 | Draw 3.67 | Al-Nassr 1.93. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 20% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 21% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Al-Fayha 0.79 / Al-Nassr 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.675 / def 0.710 | Al-Nassr attack 1.422 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Nassr xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fayha 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 21% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.68x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 40 games and Al-Nassr's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
21%
4.78
27%
3.67
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.20
1.41
Al-Nassr xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
5%
19.65
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.41 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 14D 15L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Al-Nassr's form line: 27W 8D 5L from 40 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 20 home games (5W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 12W 4D 4L from their last 20 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.28 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 14D 15L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 27W 8D 5L in their last 40 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Fayha.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fayha 35% BTTS, Al-Nassr 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fayha) and 60% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 50%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 35% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 60% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 75% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 1-3 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.79 xG and Al-Nassr 1.41 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.68 / defence 0.71 against Al-Nassr attack 1.42 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 21% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 52%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 45%, Al-Nassr 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.