Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wehda Club face Al-Ettifaq.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Ettifaq travel to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Al Wehda Club in Pro League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wehda Club stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 1.70 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al Wehda Club, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2023, ended Al Wehda Club 1–1 Al-Ettifaq — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al Wehda Club trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 48% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 48% | Al-Ettifaq 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.46 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.217 / defence 1.042 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.771 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.412. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.780, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Wehda Club's projected output down. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 40 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 40.

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.24 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 3.41. Al Wehda Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 away games).

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