Al Taee 3-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Fayha encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Fayha make the trip to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to face Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 3 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Taee's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Al Taee against 1.10 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Taee lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Taee winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 49% versus Al-Fayha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al-Fayha 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.21 xG and Al-Fayha 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.880 / defence 1.032 | Al-Fayha attack 1.005 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.431. Data: 41 Al Taee games / 41 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Taee 31% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 50% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights