Venezia 2-2 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecco make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Venezia (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lecco's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lecco's away record over their last 9 away games: 2W 3D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Venezia's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Lecco — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Lecco 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 59% | Lecco 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.76 xG and Lecco 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.395 / defence 1.199 | Lecco attack 0.670 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.123. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.395 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lecco's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Venezia's last 55 games and Lecco's last 17.
Result probabilities: Venezia 57% | Draw 25% | Lecco 18%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.76 | Draw 4.03 | Lecco 5.49. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 80% (last 10 home games) | Lecco 44% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 57% | Draw 25% | Lecco 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Venezia 1.76 / Lecco 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.395 / def 1.199 | Lecco attack 0.670 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Venezia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Lecco xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Lecco FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Lecco kick off?
Venezia vs Lecco kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Lecco?
Venezia 2 - 2 Lecco.
Where is Venezia vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Lecco part of?
Venezia vs Lecco is a Serie B fixture (matchday 18) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 57% chance of winning, Lecco a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Venezia and Lecco will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Venezia vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.40x the league average against Lecco's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecco's attack (0.67x) against Venezia's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 55 games and Lecco's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.03
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.67
0.90
Lecco xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
3%
32.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Lecco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Venezia and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Venezia and 0.90 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Lecco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 17 games, going 10W 3D 4L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Lecco — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 6W 1D 2L across their last 9 home games, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 9 away games (2W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 0.94 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Lecco
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Lecco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Lecco Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Lecco in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 10W 3D 4L in their last 17 games (1.94 PPG), while Lecco have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Lecco away?
Venezia's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.11 PPG; Lecco away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Venezia or Lecco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lecco in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Venezia and Lecco, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Lecco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Lecco?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 1, Lecco have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Venezia and Lecco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Lecco 1-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Lecco?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 78%, Lecco 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Venezia and 44% for Lecco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Lecco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Lecco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Venezia's games and 44% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Lecco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Venezia's matches and 44% of Lecco's.
Do Venezia and Lecco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Venezia's recent matches and 78% of Lecco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Lecco share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 18, as Venezia and Lecco drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.76 xG and Lecco 0.90 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lecco outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.40 / defence 1.20 against Lecco attack 0.67 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 57% | Draw 25% | Lecco 18%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 59%, Lecco 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecco's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lecco (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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