Lecco 2-3 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecco vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Ternana travel to Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi to take on Lecco. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 December 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecco stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecco's home record at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi this season.
Ternana — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Lecco) versus 1.20 (Ternana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Lecco in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ternana in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 44% versus Ternana 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 44% | Ternana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.27 xG and Ternana 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.853 / defence 1.232 | Ternana attack 1.193 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.111. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Lecco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Lecco games / 54 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 29% | Draw 26% | Ternana 45%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Ternana 2.22. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lecco 43% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 29% | Draw 26% | Ternana 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Lecco 1.27 / Ternana 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.853 / def 1.232 | Ternana attack 1.193 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Ternana (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Ternana xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Ternana kick off?
Lecco vs Ternana kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Ternana?
Lecco 2 - 3 Ternana.
Where is Lecco vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Ternana part of?
Lecco vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 29% chance of winning, Ternana a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lecco and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecco and Ternana in?
Lecco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lecco's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
29%
3.45
26%
3.86
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.90
1.63
Ternana xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
6%
17.68
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lecco and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Lecco and 1.63 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecco come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 4D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecco on 1.00 PPG, Ternana on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lecco's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Lecco are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.12 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Ternana in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Ternana have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Ternana away?
Lecco's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 1.00 PPG; Ternana away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecco and Ternana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
1
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 0, Ternana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Ternana 0-0 Lecco.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Ternana?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecco see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 43%, Ternana 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Lecco and 86% for Ternana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Lecco's games and 86% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecco vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Lecco's matches and 86% of Ternana's.
Do Lecco and Ternana tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ternana in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Lecco 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Lecco 2-3 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.27 xG and Ternana 1.63 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ternana outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Ternana attack 1.19 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 29% | Draw 26% | Ternana 45%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 44%, Ternana 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecco 1.00 PPG, Ternana 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Lecco (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.