Pisa 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Ascoli meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Current Form
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pisa at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ascoli have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ascoli away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Pisa, 2 for Ascoli and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2023, ended Pisa 1–2 Ascoli — a Ascoli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ascoli — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 56% versus Ascoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 44% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.29 xG and Ascoli 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.913 / defence 1.032 | Ascoli attack 0.856 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.150. Data: built from Pisa's last 55 games and Ascoli's last 55.
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.38 | Draw 3.37 | Ascoli 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pisa 90% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 18 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Pisa 1.29 / Ascoli 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.913 / def 1.032 | Ascoli attack 0.856 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ascoli xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Ascoli kick off?
Pisa vs Ascoli kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Ascoli?
Pisa 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Pisa vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Ascoli part of?
Pisa vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 18) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Ascoli a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Pisa vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pisa's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.86x) against Pisa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 55 games and Ascoli's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.37
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.31
1.02
Ascoli xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Pisa and 1.02 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 15W 20D 20L from 55 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 24L across 55 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Pisa against 1.15 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 8W 9D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 8D 13L across their last 27 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.04 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 20D 20L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Ascoli away?
Pisa's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.22 PPG; Ascoli away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Pisa or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ascoli in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Pisa and Ascoli, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
1
Draws
3
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Ascoli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 2, Ascoli have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pisa and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Ascoli 2-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 67%, Ascoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pisa) and 33% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Ascoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pisa's games and 48% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pisa's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Pisa's recent matches and 67% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Ascoli 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.29 xG and Ascoli 1.02 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Ascoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 42% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 28%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 44%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ascoli's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.18 PPG, Ascoli 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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