Bologna 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet in-form Atalanta provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bologna vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Atalanta travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna in Serie A (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bologna have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atalanta are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Bologna have won 3, Atalanta 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Bologna 2–1 Atalanta — a Bologna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Atalanta 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 44% | Atalanta 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.61 xG and Atalanta 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.009 / defence 0.906 | Atalanta attack 1.170 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.229. Data: built from Bologna's last 43 games and Atalanta's last 43.
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.40 | Draw 3.29 | Atalanta 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atalanta (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Atalanta's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Bologna 1.61 / Atalanta 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.009 / def 0.906 | Atalanta attack 1.170 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Atalanta xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Atalanta kick off?
Bologna vs Atalanta kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Bologna 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Bologna vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Atalanta part of?
Bologna vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 6) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Atalanta a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bologna and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bologna vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.01x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 43 games and Atalanta's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.29
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.92
1.30
Atalanta xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bologna and 1.30 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 17D 7L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.74 PPG from 43 outings (23W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.72 PPG, Atalanta on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 12W 7D 2L across their last 21 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 21 away games (8W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atalanta's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.91 scored and 1.23 conceded. Atalanta's attacking output running into Bologna's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Atalanta in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Atalanta
Early Season
Bologna (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Early Season
Atalanta
Early Season
❓ Bologna vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 19W 17D 7L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 23W 6D 14L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Atalanta away?
Bologna's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.05 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bologna or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Atalanta in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 4, Atalanta have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bologna and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 38%, Atalanta 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bologna) and 71% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Atalanta matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bologna's recent matches and 57% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 71% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bologna's recent matches and 90% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 6, as Bologna and Atalanta drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.61 xG and Atalanta 1.30 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Atalanta attack 1.17 / defence 1.15, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 44%, Atalanta 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.72 PPG, Atalanta 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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