Udinese 2-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Udinese take on Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Inter travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bluenergy Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.90 PPG versus Inter's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Udinese register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Inter in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Inter have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Udinese's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Inter in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 58% versus Inter 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 40% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.26 xG and Inter 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.952 / defence 0.912 | Inter attack 1.175 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.187. Data: 43 Udinese games / 43 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 34% | Inter 33%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Inter 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 70% | Inter 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 33% | Draw 34% | Inter 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Udinese 1.26 / Inter 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.952 / def 0.912 | Inter attack 1.175 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Inter xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Inter kick off?
Udinese vs Inter kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Inter?
Udinese 2 - 3 Inter.
Where is Udinese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Inter part of?
Udinese vs Inter is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 33% chance of winning, Inter a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Udinese and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
Record (6 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Inter 5W.
What form are Udinese and Inter in?
Udinese (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Inter (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.95x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
34%
2.95
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.54
1.27
Inter xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Udinese and 1.27 for Inter, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 9W 20D 14L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 31W 9D 3L from 43 games, 2.37 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Udinese have posted 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (3W 11D 7L).
On the road, Inter have gone 15W 5D 1L from 21 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.30 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Inter in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 9W 20D 14L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Inter have gone 31W 9D 3L in their last 43 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.95 PPG; Inter away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Udinese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Inter in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 67%, Inter 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Udinese) and 57% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Udinese's games and 48% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Udinese's recent games and 57% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Inter tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Inter in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Udinese 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Udinese 2-3 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.26 xG and Inter 1.27 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Inter attack 1.18 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 33% | Draw 34% | Inter 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Inter win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 40%, Inter 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.