Bologna 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Parma travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.20 PPG, Parma 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Parma 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 43% | Parma 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.69 xG and Parma 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.881 | Parma attack 0.953 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.265. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Bologna games / 6 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 49% | Draw 30% | Parma 21%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 4.76. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Parma 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 49% | Draw 30% | Parma 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Bologna 1.69 / Parma 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.881 | Parma attack 0.953 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Bologna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Parma xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Parma kick off?
Bologna vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Parma?
Bologna 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Bologna vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Parma part of?
Bologna vs Parma is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 49% chance of winning, Parma a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bologna and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Parma in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.30
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.75
1.06
Parma xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bologna and 1.06 for Parma, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 19W 18D 7L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 22W 15D 7L from 44 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.70 PPG, Parma on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.10 PPG from 21 outings (12W 8D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Parma have gone 10W 7D 4L from 21 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.73 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 66%.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Parma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 19W 18D 7L in their last 44 games (1.70 PPG), while Parma have gone 22W 15D 7L in their last 44 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Parma away?
Bologna's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.10 PPG; Parma away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Bologna or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Parma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 43%, Parma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bologna) and 62% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Parma in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bologna's recent matches and 62% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 62% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Parma tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Parma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Parma finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.69 xG and Parma 1.06 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Parma attack 0.95 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 49% | Draw 30% | Parma 21%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 43%, Parma 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.70 PPG, Parma 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.