Olympiakos Piraeus 4-1 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Apollon Smirnis make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 17:15 UK time.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's record over their last 2 games: 1W 1D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 2 games: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 2.00 PPG lead over Apollon Smirnis (2.00 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.10 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.817 / defence 1.023 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.724 / defence 1.530. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 0.946. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.530 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 2 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Draw 32% | Apollon Smirnis 23%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.23 | Draw 3.13 | Apollon Smirnis 4.31. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Olympiakos Piraeus 2 games, Apollon Smirnis 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Draw 32% | Apollon Smirnis 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.10 / Apollon Smirnis 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.817 / def 1.023 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.724 / def 1.530 | league avg home 0.880 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Apollon Smirnis xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 1 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.82x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.72x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 2 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
45%
2.23
32%
3.13
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.80
0.70
Apollon Smirnis xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.70 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five.
Apollon Smirnis's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Apollon Smirnis.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.50 scored and 3.50 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs Apollon Smirnis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 January 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 January 2022: Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Apollon Smirnis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 50% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 100% of Apollon Smirnis's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Apollon Smirnis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 100% of Apollon Smirnis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Apollon Smirnis 4-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.10 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.70 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.72 / defence 1.53, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Draw 32% | Apollon Smirnis 23%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Apollon Smirnis 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.