Lamia 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 41%, yet in-form Olympiakos Piraeus provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Super League 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.07 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.969 / defence 1.150 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 0.847. Data: 1 Lamia games / 1 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamia 41% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Olympiakos Piraeus (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 41% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Lamia 1.07 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.969 / def 1.150 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.958 / away 0.847 • Poisson stance: Lamia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Lamia 1 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 41% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.97) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.17
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.90
0.83
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lamia and 0.83 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 0%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Lamia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Lamia's recent matches and 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Lamia's recent games and 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat Lamia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 1-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.07 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.83 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 41% | Draw 32% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 100%, Olympiakos Piraeus 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.