AEK Athens FC 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as AEK Athens FC welcome Lamia to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.47 xG and Lamia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.244 / defence 1.020 | Lamia attack 0.856 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 0.975. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 AEK Athens FC games / 2 Lamia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 26% | Lamia 22%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Lamia 4.55. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 26% | Lamia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.47 / Lamia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.244 / def 1.020 | Lamia attack 0.856 / def 1.276 | league avg home 0.928 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Lamia xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 52% chance of winning, Lamia a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D. Lamia (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.24) and Lamia's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.78
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.33
0.85
Lamia xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.85 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia in 100%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Lamia have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have AEK Athens FC or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lamia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AEK Athens FC's games and 100% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 100% of Lamia's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Lamia tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 1-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.47 xG and Lamia 0.85 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against Lamia attack 0.86 / defence 1.28, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 52% | Draw 26% | Lamia 22%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 100%, Lamia 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. AEK Athens FC managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.