Slovan Liberec 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec at Stadion u Nisy this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Slovan Liberec, 1.00 for České Budějovice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Slovan Liberec 2W, České Budějovice 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 4–0 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
České Budějovice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 60% versus České Budějovice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 58% | České Budějovice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 2.48 xG and České Budějovice 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.152 / defence 1.101 | České Budějovice attack 0.768 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.140. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Slovan Liberec games / 43 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 70% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 13%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | České Budějovice 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 50% | České Budějovice 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 70% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 57% | xG Slovan Liberec 2.48 / České Budějovice 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.152 / def 1.101 | České Budějovice attack 0.768 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.96
České Budějovice xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 70% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Record (6 meetings): Slovan Liberec 2W | Draws 2 | České Budějovice 2W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (1.15) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.77x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
70%
1.42
17%
5.94
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
3.44
0.96
České Budějovice xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.94
17%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
8%
11.88
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
1%
93.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.96 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 13D 19L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice's form line: 14W 6D 25L from 45 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.07 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 4W 4D 14L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.16 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 14W 6D 25L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or České Budějovice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.32 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 4-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 54%, České Budějovice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Slovan Liberec and 64% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Slovan Liberec's games and 59% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovan Liberec vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Slovan Liberec's matches and 64% of České Budějovice's.
Do Slovan Liberec and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 2.48 xG and České Budějovice 0.96 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.15 / defence 1.10 against České Budějovice attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 70% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 13%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 58%, České Budějovice 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.16 PPG, České Budějovice 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.