Pardubice 0-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pardubice at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zlin travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Pardubice have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zlin have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Pardubice have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Pardubice have won 1, Zlin 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Pardubice 1–2 Zlin — a Zlin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Zlin in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus Zlin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Zlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.21 xG and Zlin 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.686 / defence 0.926 | Zlin attack 0.681 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.176. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Zlin's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Pardubice's last 43 games and Zlin's last 43.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 47% | Draw 30% | Zlin 23%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.12 | Draw 3.32 | Zlin 4.41. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Pardubice's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 47% | Draw 30% | Zlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Pardubice 1.21 / Zlin 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.686 / def 0.926 | Zlin attack 0.681 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Zlin xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 47% chance of winning, Zlin a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.69x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 43 games and Zlin's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.32
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.95
0.74
Zlin xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.74 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 50 games, going 15W 9D 26L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.90 PPG from 50 outings (9W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.08 PPG, Zlin on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across their last 25 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.56 points per game from their last 25 away games (1W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.14 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 64%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 18D 23L in their last 50 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Pardubice's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Zlin away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Oct 2026, when Pardubice won Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 4, Zlin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Pardubice 3-0 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 44%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 56% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 44% of games; Zlin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pardubice's recent matches and 56% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 56% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Pardubice's recent matches and 60% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.21 xG and Zlin 0.74 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Zlin attack 0.68 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 47% | Draw 30% | Zlin 23%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Zlin 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.08 PPG, Zlin 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.