Karviná 1-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Karviná welcome Baník Ostrava to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karviná — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Karviná are significantly better at Městský Stadión than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Baník Ostrava's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Karviná's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Karviná register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Baník Ostrava in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Karviná, 1 for Baník Ostrava and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Karviná winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 62% versus Baník Ostrava 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 54% | Baník Ostrava 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.32 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.005 / defence 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.122 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.140. Data: 13 Karviná games / 43 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 67% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Karviná 1.32 / Baník Ostrava 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.005 / def 1.097 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.122 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Baník Ostrava xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Karviná vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Karviná 1 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Karviná vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 35% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Karviná and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
Record (2 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Karviná and Baník Ostrava in?
Karviná (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karviná's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.90
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.73
1.40
Baník Ostrava xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Karviná and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Karviná and 1.40 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karviná come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 1D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karviná's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Karviná are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baník Ostrava's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karviná are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.46 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Baník Ostrava in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Karviná's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.67 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Karviná or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karviná and Baník Ostrava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Karviná
3
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Karviná 0-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karviná see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 67%, Baník Ostrava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 50% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Karviná's games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Karviná 1-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.32 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.40 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.12 / defence 0.81, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 35% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 54%, Baník Ostrava 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.