Zorya Luhansk 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zorya Luhansk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion SKIF plays host to Zorya Luhansk versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Zorya Luhansk (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion SKIF, Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Zorya Luhansk are significantly better at Stadion SKIF than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 1W 3D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Zorya Luhansk, 1.00 for LNZ Cherkasy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Zorya Luhansk have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, LNZ Cherkasy in only 17%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Zorya Luhansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 47% versus LNZ Cherkasy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zorya Luhansk 53% | LNZ Cherkasy 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.03 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.861 / defence 0.965 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.656 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.167. Data: 41 Zorya Luhansk games / 13 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 41% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — LNZ Cherkasy's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 41% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.03 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 0.861 / def 0.965 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.656 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.74
LNZ Cherkasy xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 41% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (0.86) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.66x) against Zorya Luhansk's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 41/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
41%
2.42
33%
2.99
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
1.77
0.74
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.74 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zorya Luhansk come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 4D 6L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Zorya Luhansk against 1.13 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Zorya Luhansk's home form reads 1W 1D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.27 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 0.67 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zorya Luhansk have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Zorya Luhansk
2
Draws
4
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Zorya Luhansk) and 17% (LNZ Cherkasy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Zorya Luhansk and 33% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 50%; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 67% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 17% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as LNZ Cherkasy defy the odds to beat Zorya Luhansk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Zorya Luhansk 1-2 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.03 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.74 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.66 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 41% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a LNZ Cherkasy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 53%, LNZ Cherkasy 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.27 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.