Chornomorets 2-3 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Chornomorets welcome Ruh Lviv to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Chornomorets. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 1.60 PPG versus Ruh Lviv's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv trading profile (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Ruh Lviv 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 52% | Ruh Lviv 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.37 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.166 / defence 0.744 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.397 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.186. Ruh Lviv have an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Chornomorets's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Chornomorets games / 43 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 40% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Ruh Lviv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Chornomorets 30% | Ruh Lviv 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 40% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Chornomorets 1.37 / Ruh Lviv 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.166 / def 0.744 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.397 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Ruh Lviv xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Chornomorets 2 - 3 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 40% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (1.17) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
40%
2.53
27%
3.66
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.60
1.23
Ruh Lviv xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.23 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 15W 9D 18L from 42 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 12W 17D 13L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 1.29 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 6W 5D 8L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.21 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 12W 17D 13L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.21 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chornomorets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
2
Draws
4
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 37%, Ruh Lviv 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Chornomorets) and 53% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 37% of games; Ruh Lviv in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 47% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Chornomorets's recent games and 53% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Chornomorets 2-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.37 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.23 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ruh Lviv outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.17 / defence 0.74 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.40 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 40% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 33%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 52%, Ruh Lviv 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.29 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.